From Dot-Com to AI: Staying on the Leading Edge

Market Update
Written By Jared Kline

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My Early Days in the PC Era

In 1994—my last year of college—I spent countless hours in the computer lab learning to code, fixing bugs, and sending my very first emails to Corie. Back in my dorm I had an Apple IIc—no dial-up, no Internet, just a clunky machine that felt worlds away from today’s wireless everything. I ran a fantasy baseball league using USA Today’s printed stats.

When I moved to Cincinnati in 1995 with P&G, one of my first big splurges was a $2,000 “Leading Edge” computer. Over the next decade, technology exploded in front of me on my Leading Edge PC. Amazon started selling books online. I opened an E*Trade brokerage account that I still use today. Google rose to dominate search, replacing the likes of AOL, Yahoo, and Ask Jeeves.

Along the way, I carried gadgets now fit for tech museums: a Palm Pilot, then a Blackberry—both paving the way for today’s smartphones. And yes, when our kids wanted to hear the Backstreet Boys, we fired up Napster and downloaded music for free (and illegally!).

The stock market reflected that frenzy. The “dot com bubble” was unlike anything I’d ever seen. Technology stocks went to the moon. Some companies—Google, Microsoft, Amazon—tanked during the crash, then came roaring back to lead for decades. Others like Pets.com, Webvan, and eToys exploded on the scene but quickly fizzed, never to recover. At the peak in March 2000, the S&P 500 had more than doubled, only to lose nearly half its value by late 2002. The Nasdaq’s QQQ ETF fell 83% before eventually rebounding.

Echoes of the Dot-Com Boom

Fast forward to today. I’m drafting this article while flipping to ChatGPT for fact-checks. I’ve already replaced most of my Google searches with Chat’s direct answers. Brian, Dave and I have even used Chat to work through tough tax questions.

AI is seeping into nearly every part of life.

  • Amazon uses it for Alexa and to recommend purchases.

  • Google powers YouTube recommendations, now the top U.S. video platform by viewership—beating Netflix and Disney+ combined.

  • Microsoft acquired Nuance, which built AI for medical dictation and voice assistants.

  • Palantir applies AI to defense and healthcare analytics.

  • And powering it all is Nvidia, whose chips are the backbone of modern AI.

The numbers are staggering. Nvidia was founded in 1993 and began designing AI chips in 2012. In 2025, Nvidia reported $130 billion in revenue and $73 billion in profit. That’s 55% more revenue than P&G—and nearly 5x the profit. For perspective, P&G sold $84 billion of products in 2024 with $16 billion in profit.

Contrast that with the early 2000s, when dot com era stock darlings saw shares zoom higher despite the lack of profitability. Consider Amazon - the stock exploded despite losing money until 2003, when it finally eked out a $35 million profit.

AI’s “Promise Plays”

Of course, not all AI-related companies are profitable today or their profitability is small compared to the stock gains. Many echo the speculative feel of the dot-com era.

  • Energy demand → AI data centers may consume as much electricity as small countries by 2030. This fuels hype around nuclear power, uranium miners, and fusion startups.

  • Infrastructure bets → firms like Credo (datacenter cables) and Lumentum (optical components) are riding the wave. Credo stock is up in one year from $31 to $135, Lumentum from $55 to $139.

  • Speculative names → Oklo, a microreactor company with no revenue yet, is up 250% this year. Others like Iris Energy, SoundHound, and Applied Digital have soared despite minimal sales.

It feels familiar: excitement, innovation, and plenty of hype.———————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————

The Bottom Line

AI is here to stay. Some companies will soar, others will vanish. Just like the dot-com era, the survivors will be those that adapt, execute, and stay on the leading edge.

Jared

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Kellett Wealth Advisors LLC is a Registered Investment Adviser. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Kellett Wealth Advisors LLC and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. This website is solely for informational purposes. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal capital. No advice may be rendered by Kellett Wealth Advisors LLC unless a client service agreement is in place.

Jared Kline
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